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Projection of the future temperature changes of Yellow River Basin Ningxia section based on CMIP6 models
MA Yang, CUI Yang, ZHANG Wen, LI Xin
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (1): 43-53.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-01-0043
Abstract356)   HTML7)    PDF(pc) (2381KB)(827)       Save

In order to project the future climatic characteristics and their changing tendencies in different areas in Ningxia section of the Yellow River Basin, the performance of the CMIP6 models in simulating the annual mean air temperature in Ningxia are evaluated based on observation data at 19 national meteorological stations and the CMIP6 models data. Then the future air temperature changes in the Yellow River irrigation area, the middle arid area and the southern mountainous area of Ningxia under different scenarios are analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) Most models of the CMIP6 have a good simulation ability to annual mean air temperature in the Ningxia section of the Yellow River Basin, with spatial correlation coefficient of 0.603-0.930 and temporal correlation coefficient of 0.381-0.782. Meanwhile, the result of multi-model ensemble simulation is better than that of a single model. (2) Under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it is predicted that the annual mean air temperature in the Yellow River Basin Ningxia section will present a significant warming trend from 2021 to 2099, with a warming rate between 0.09 and 0.68 ℃·(10 a)-1. The warming rates are obviously different in different scenarios, which shows a decreasing trend under the SSP1-2.6, and firstly increasing and then decreasing trend under the SSP2-4.5, an increasing-decreasing-increasing trend under the SSP3-7.0, and an increasing trend under the SSP5-8.5. (3) It is estimated that the annual mean air temperature in the Yellow River irrigation area, the middle arid area and the southern mountainous area will reach 10.91-11.29, 9.48-9.87, 7.47-7.84 ℃ in the 2030s, respectively, and 11.46-13.21, 10.00-11.75, 7.97-9.66 ℃ in the 2060s under the four scenarios, respectively.

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